Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 3.732134 4.368516 5.072581 5.908179 6.871703 7.946728 9.235930
2025-10-19 2.750481 3.605381 4.653307 6.027120 7.775037 9.918521 12.739752
2025-10-26 2.098831 3.026557 4.265548 6.029177 8.460897 11.679427 16.242789
2025-11-02 1.607730 2.519490 3.831035 5.834574 8.792346 12.966742 19.264407
2025-11-09 1.238816 2.092199 3.404051 5.537605 8.882199 13.874269 21.821260
2025-11-16 1.009969 1.824270 3.152530 5.436151 9.210168 15.125416 24.991694
2025-11-23 0.844094 1.621993 2.961730 5.384540 9.584413 16.462604 28.423173
2025-11-30 0.758449 1.540498 2.954240 5.628067 10.462183 18.689464 33.525179
2025-12-07 0.657483 1.409522 2.834413 5.648373 10.945253 20.296993 37.752349
2025-12-14 0.569122 1.285071 2.703941 5.623688 11.333592 21.768933 41.887501
2025-12-21 0.499236 1.184410 2.601455 5.632952 11.777890 23.377036 46.423651
2025-12-28 0.484157 1.198497 2.730803 6.119225 13.199866 26.935046 54.927254
2026-01-04 0.441270 1.144219 2.713193 6.309400 14.074954 29.586956 62.071200
2026-01-11 0.402884 1.093502 2.696164 6.500458 14.981515 32.410319 69.877915
2026-01-18 0.357963 1.017673 2.610072 6.525556 15.537881 34.590380 76.630515
2026-01-25 0.305896 0.912395 2.436981 6.323772 15.566920 35.678655 81.245442
2026-02-01 0.255776 0.801084 2.229404 6.006083 15.286708 36.070489 84.418166
2026-02-08 0.223214 0.731582 2.114838 5.897499 15.476834 37.502507 89.985662
2026-02-15 0.197399 0.676001 2.026888 5.842104 15.785501 39.228669 96.377641
2026-02-22 0.186977 0.665219 2.058648 6.105096 16.914942 42.954453 107.682033
2026-03-01 0.168954 0.626200 2.004421 6.127054 17.432808 45.292665 115.983345
2026-03-08 0.151474 0.584931 1.936498 6.100425 17.820113 47.356070 123.834505
2026-03-15 0.137085 0.550892 1.884213 6.110429 18.306207 49.710427 132.616832